2019年4月5日 星期五

戴明的新經學與好友。Walter Francis Willcox, 國勢普查 (census), Amherst College






1957.5.11 日記

美國的census從1790年開始....120年才有今天的成績。


有心人該看看我的說法：


43:32268 戴明的新經學與好友 2019-01-18 漢清講堂














----
國勢普/調查 (census)是日本的翻譯：
[名]人口［国勢］調査；（交通量などの）公的な調査
  • take a census
  • 国勢調査をする


Cornell University 更新了封面相片。
Jim Morris and Julie Costie enjoyed a pleasant drive around the Cornell campus in their 1931 Deluxe Model A Ford Tudor Sedan which is decorated for the holiday break. The 84 year old sedan looked at home in front of the A. D. White house on Breezy Knoll.


胡適日記全集, 第 6卷 1930-33
1930.9.8   pp.272-76 記： Willcox說中國人口約四億。
胡適以他家族經太平天國之慘事的情形為例.....

1930 Tokyo hosts the 19th Session of the International Statistics Institute (ISI).


胡適在1937年 6月13日 的 獨立評論 的"編輯後記" 中談過" 國勢普查 (census)*。
他引的 W. F. Willcox (年譜長編初稿 p.1593 姓氏拼錯) 是位名統計學家。
參考後文 Wikipedia 關於 Walter Francis Willcox的介紹。
我們可知道，他在19世紀末1892 就在胡適以後就讀的康乃爾大學開統計課 (1890年 全美的大學 有16個統計課程)。
不過， 胡適在美國應該/可能沒修過統計課。
可他還是有些粗淺的統計知識和美國國勢普查相關的"常識"。
所以他會說："現在的文明的國家之中，沒有舉行 國勢普查的， 恐怕只有我們這個古國了.........究竟那一個數字對呢? 誰也沒有真實可靠的統計來解答。
人口如此 ，其他必須依據人口為基礎的死亡率、人口增加率 、文盲百分比 等等，當然都沒有確實數字了......"


*"...... 國民政府在南京時代，一度曾有意調查全國人口，延攬清華教授社會學專案陳達任內政部司長。經過一年，陳達不能絲毫有所作為......指定的經費，卻只夠人口司的薪俸開支。其結果無異於政治加了一駢枝機關......此種現象在當日中國政府各機關內似甚普騙！　"----
張忠紱《迷惘集：張忠紱回憶錄》，台北市 : 雙子星出版 : 星光書報社發行, 民60[1971]， 頁117

胡適日記全集, 第 8 卷: 1940-1952
1946.2.3-2.15  Messenger Lectures 6講次
2.9-2.12 每天日記都有 Willcox 一家的記載 。 Willcox之前是胡適他的老師 ，現在給他的論文 ，說，兩人所追求社會的了解， 或許彼此不同。

中國版的日記將" A Message From '84" 翻譯錯誤 我們由下面Wikipedia 他的介紹 知道  Willcox
1884年畢業於Amherst College
所以這是"1884年級畢業生的寄語"

 
Walter Francis Willcox, Ph.D., LL.D. (March 22, 1861 – October 12, 1964)[1] was an American statistician. He was born in Reading, Massachusetts to William Henry Willcox and Anne Holmes Goodenow. He was graduated from Phillips Academy, Andover, in 1880; Amherst College in 1884 with an A.B. and in 1888 received and A.M. degree from Amherst College. He received an LL.B degree (1887) and a Ph.D. (1891) from Columbia. In 1906 he received an honorary LL.D. degree from Amherst College.[2]
He was a Cornell University faculty member from 1891 to 1931 within the President White School of History and Political Science. He held the presidency of the American Statistical Association in 1911-12 and of the American Economic Association in 1915. As well as essays and magazine articles, he published The Divorce Problem, A Study in Statistics (1891; second edition, 1897), and Supplementary Analysis and Derivative Tables, twelfth census (1906).
Willcox initiated the first statistics course at Cornell in 1892, one of the earliest university courses in statistics in the United States, and one among 16 universities with such courses in the 1890s.[3] His research interest was in vital statistics. Emil Julius Gumbel described his body of work, collected in Studies in American Demography, as "the type of old-fashioned writings which will continu e to be of value notwithstanding all progress achieved in mathematical statistics." [4]

[edit] Publications

  • Studies in American Demography, Ithaca, New York: Cornell University Press (1940).
  • International Migrations, Volume II: Interpretations (Editor), New York: National Bureau of Economic Research (1931).
  • Walter Francis Willcox papers, #14-10-504. Division of Rare and Manuscript Collections, Cornell University Library.

[edit] References

  1. ^ Rice, Stuart A (1964). "Walter Francis Willcox March 28, 1861 - October 30, 1964". Revue de l'Institut International de Statistique / Review of the International Statistical Institute (International Statistical Institute (ISI)) 32 (3): 340–346. http://www.jstor.org/stable/1401885. Retrieved 2008-05-11.
  2. ^ Leonard, William R.; Leonard, William R (1961). "Walter Francis Willcox: Statist". The American Statistician (American Statistical Association) 15 (1): 16–19. doi:10.2307/2682503. http://www.jstor.org/stable/2682503. Retrieved 2010-05-31.
  3. ^ Leonard, W.R.. Op. Cit.: 16.
  4. ^ Gumbel, E.J. (1941). "Review of Studies in American Demography". The Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science (American Academy of Political and Social Science) 218 (1): 239. http://ann.sagepub.com/cgi/pdf_extract/218/1/239. Retrieved 2010-05-31.
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